Method
The results presented here are based on two published manuscripts. For details on evaluating the Paris Compliance of companies see our publication in Nature Communications (PDF). For details on evaluating fossil fuel companies alignment with 1.5ºC climate pathways see our publication in Nature Climate Change (forthcoming).
Data Visualiser
To see the emissions projections for individual companies first choose a fuel type.
Figure description: Company alignment with 1.5 °C climate pathways since 2014 in terms of cumulative production. This figure displays the performance of the selected company against three IPCC scenarios and the IEA-NZE scenario. Using a grandfathering approach, production pathways are allocated to an individual company on the basis of the company’s average production between 2010 and 2014, and aligned with AIM/CGE SSP1–1.9 (purple dash-dotted line), MESSAGE-GLOBIOM SSP2–1.9 (grey dotted line) and GCAM SSP5–1.9 (orange dashed line), commencing in 2014, and the IEA-NZE scenario, commencing in 2020 (brown dashed line). Each pathway varies in terms of its reliance on CCS, SSP1-1.9 (low to medium reliance), SSP2-1.9 (medium reliance) and SSP5-1.9 (very high reliance). Specific CCS requirements under each scenario can be found in the table below. None of the pathways involve very low or zero requirements of CCS. The 2019–2020 production budget of the IEA-NZE was obtained by downscaling the world’s actual production. The companies’ production is projected forward using their average production growth between 2010 and 2018 (blue dashed line).
| Fuel | Model–scenario | Variable | 2015 | 2020 | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | 2045 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coal | SSP1–1.9 (AIM/CGE) | Ratio of CCS required compared to total production (%) | 0% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 6% | 9% | 13% |
| Coal | SSP2–1.9 (M-G) | Ratio of CCS required compared to total production (%) | 0% | 0% | 3% | 6% | 11% | 17% | 22% | 29% |
| Coal | SSP5–1.9 (GCAM4) | Ratio of CCS required compared to total production (%) | 0% | 1% | 5% | 11% | 21% | 30% | 38% | 45% |
| Oil | SSP1–1.9 (AIM/CGE) | Ratio of CCS required compared to total production (%) | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 3% | 5% | 7% |
| Oil | SSP2–1.9 (M-G) | Ratio of CCS required compared to total production (%) | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Oil | SSP5–1.9 (GCAM4) | Ratio of CCS required compared to total production (%) | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| Gas | SSP5–1.9 (AIM/CGE) | Ratio of CCS required compared to total production (%) | 0% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 9% | 14% | 19% | 23% |
| Gas | SSP5–1.9 (M-G) | Ratio of CCS required compared to total production (%) | 0% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 9% | 14% | 19% | 23% |
| Gas | SSP5–1.9 (GCAM4) | Ratio of CCS required compared to total production (%) | 0% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 9% | 14% | 19% | 23% |
